A lot has happened in the NBA offseason, and I’ll write a more comprehensive review soon. But I wanted to touch on two specific teams that ended their season on surprisingly high notes, but have had drastically different offseasons.
First up, the Orlando Magic (added: Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, Jameer Nelson; lost: Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee, Marcin Gortat, Rafer Alston) – I actually think the Magic will take a small to medium step back this year for quite a few reasons. Think Cavs circa 07-08.
So much of the Magic’s success last year was based on exploiting mismatches. Losing Hedo Turkoglu means they lose their point forward, closing man, and 6-10 small forward with a size and handles advantage over his counterpart. Lewis is now shifting over to the 3 (a position in reality he’s more suited to, but Orlando didn’t adhere to reality last year), where he’s no longer going to be faster and a better ball handler than the 4’s he went against last year. He’ll certainly post up more, but it’s not like he’s overpoweringly strong either, and it’s definitely not the best part of his game.
Losing Gortat means they don’t have a good backup for Howard, and when he’s forced to check out, they don’t have anyone (and I mean ANYONE) that can guard an opposing center. And Courtney Lee was their best perimeter defender, a good shooter, and a player that will continue to develop. They should be fine without Rafer Alston.
They did add two good players and get another key player back from injury. Vince Carter still has some game left, and he should replace Turkoglu’s numbers at a reasonably efficient rate. The problem with adding Carter is that, although he’s a superior player to both, he’s not better than Turkoglu and Lee combined. It’s not even close. Specifically, he doesn’t handle the ball as well as Hedo, he doesn’t defend nearly as well as Lee, he doesn’t create a size mismatch like Turkoglu, and he won’t continue to develop like Lee.
Brandon Bass is an extremely efficient player, a good shooter, and a decent defender, even if undersized. But he’s the type of player they need to be bringing off the bench with their original lineup. He’s going to start, forcing Lewis to the 3, and he’s not going to bring the same things to the table. Not even close.
Nelson is perhaps the reason to be the most optimistic. He was an All-Star selection last year before getting hurt, and his game has developed extremely well. But he’s not a huge difference maker on this team. He should drive and dish a lot, but he’s not a knock-down outside shooter like Lee or Turkoglu, and so much of the Magic offense is rotating to the open 3 point shooter after Howard’s double-teamed.
The Magic essentially played small all last year by putting Lewis at the 4, but got away with it with the rebounding beast in Howard. They’ve now become a straight up team that’s probably less talented than the other elite teams in the league.
The second team I wanted to touch on was the Houston Rockets. Gotta feel for Yao Ming, the Rockets, and Rockets fans. They win their first playoff series since 96-97, they push the eventual champion Lakers to 7 games, Tracy McGrady wins the first playoff series of his career (ouch… on the bench? How frustrated must he be?), and their young players looked great and like they’ll continue to develop (Brooks, Scola and Lowry all looked good). And then Yao’s foot injury turns out to be worse than expected, he’s probably done for the season and may be done for his career. Wow. Now instead of Yao, McGrady and Artest surrounded by young role players, it’s just the young role players (I feel that it’s a safe assumption that T-Mac won’t play enough games to be considered an active player. I think his file already says that he retired.) I liked that they went after Ariza. He’s a former top prospect that is finally starting to show on all his promise. He’s athletic, he’s a good defender, and he’s finally starting to shoot better (I, for one, believe that the Lakers should have resigned Ariza instead of signing Artest. By the end of next season, it’ll look like a wash. The year after that, it’ll look like a terrible decision.). Now, Yao’s injury forces them to either hope for a miracle recovery, pray that one of their young guns (Ariza, Brooks, Scola?) develops into a star, or rebuild on the fly.
July 11, 2009 at 4:33 pm |
I think the Magic will be better than last year, even not considering Nelson’s comeback.
-Although VC isn’t as tall as Turkoglu, he replaces and improves on many of his skills. He’s a really good ball handler and passer. Plus he’s a better shooter than Turkoglu. Turkoglu is overrated because he was always triggering the pick and roll in the playoffs and got a ton of face time. VC is just better.
-Lewis is still a match-up problem, even without Turkoglu. The combination was a problem for the Cavs since LeBron could totally take care of one of them but they had nobody for the other. But few teams have anyone who can guard Lewis.
-They still have the small line-up. Pietrus can replace Bass, pushing Lewis to the 4 and he and VC can play the 2/3.
-Long term: Both Turkoglu and VC are over 30 and on the down side of their careers. The Magic are committed to VC for only 2 years; the Raptors had to commit to Turkoglu for 5.
-Gortat: the Magic could still match his offer sheet from the Mavs. But even if they don’t, Ryan Anderson’s been great in summer ball. What opposing centers are you afraid of?
July 12, 2009 at 9:12 pm |
Eli, glad to know you’re reading the blog (you’re a fellow Cleveland fan, right?). I agree that Turkoglu is overrated and that signing him to a big contract might have been a mistake down the line. And I don’t necessarily think that trading for Carter was a bad move. But I think it was just the lesser of two evils, not a move that really improves the team, especially because they had to give up Lee.
I’m not sure that Vinsanity improves on that many of Turkoglu’s skills. He’s a better scorer and finisher inside, but otherwise all their shooting numbers (2pt jump shots, 3p%, and FT%) have been very similar over their careers. Carter is a bit more streaky, Turkoglu is a bit more consistent. Their assist rates are nearly equal as well, and while Carter is comparatively a better rebounder for his position, Turkoglu’s comparatively a better ballhandler for his position.
You’re correct that they certainly still have the personnel to go small at times, but by committing to starting Bass it looks like they won’t do it as often. And while Lewis will still present matchup problems at the 3, it won’t be as devastating. When he’s playing PF, he’s a better ballhandler and shooter than other power forwards, skills he’s able to take advantage of because he’s quicker too. At the 3, he’s only going to be a few inches taller than other wings, an asset he won’t be able to take advantage of as well because he’s not very strong and doesn’t have many refined post up moves. Hell, 6-3, 180 pound Delonte West twice denied Lewis deep post position by out-muscling him down low in the conference finals.
Finally, while Ryan Anderson has been good this summer, he will quite possibly the most overmatched defender in the league. He’s listed at an EXTREMELY generous 240 pounds, and I’m pretty sure I can bench more. To compound matters, he’s slow. In 20 minutes a game last year, he averaged a whopping .3 blocks and 2.40 personal fouls. Not good. And with the Cavs getting Shaq to go with Big Z and the Celtics getting Wallace to go with Perkins, both teams now have offensive threats at center that can do damage off the bench, or when Howard inevitably gets into foul trouble.
Note: Well, this last paragraph is irrelevant now that the Magic matched the Mavs offer. Probably a good signing for the Magic, even if it’s a lot of money.
July 21, 2009 at 8:38 am |
Where are you guys? Last post was July 11th. Today is July 21st. Publish or Perish!!!!